Is This The End Of The Barista? (Part 1)

Part 1 - Nov 2006

For some time now baristas have been developing an air of invincibility in their skills and profession. Most believe that, as a profession, life will just get better and better. In fact, even Barista Competitions unintentionally reinforce the perception that cafes (certainly any decent one) cannot go without a great barista. However, my observations in up-to-date years have led me to end that this may not be the case. Changes in the commerce are happening, and they are beyond the operate of the barista. The demand is: Will baristas be immune to these changes?

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Back in late 2003 I stood next to three world barista champions whilst observing a radical new gismo incorporated into a appropriate semi-automatic espresso machine. This gismo was engineered to replicate milk steaming and texturing to a appropriate equal to, if not better than, the best baristas in the world. It did not operate on the age old Venturi principle, such as steamers of the past, but in fact stretched and swirled the milk as a barista would. And whilst I could see it needed a few minor modifications, it was good. Too good really! The four of us asked the demonstrator (who was not a barista) to steam a number of pitchers filled with milk, and each time the texture and consistency of the steamed milk left us flawed. The world barista champions and I looked at each other and agreed it could spell the end of the barista!

And in July 2005, I was privileged to be one of the first individuals to trial a new style 'super-automatic' espresso machine with any twists. It was price competing to most 2 group semi-automatics, with an independent boiler for steaming, and had independent settings for dosing, tamp pressure and distance of extraction. It was in some ways a 'smart' machine, informing the operator of changes required to meet the desired optimum extraction. And very surprisingly, it only had one spirited part, a chassis which allowed for a quick turn - less than a minute! In terms of dismissal consistency and quality, I ended up using this machine to citation espressos when evaluating my roasted coffees. It offered me the most consistent dismissal of the highest standard. The only skill required by the operator was to know the characteristics of this machine.

In ideas this machine appeared to be the ideal dismissal tool, but I had to prove a hunch I had as a result of using this 'super-automatic'. But I had to prove that this machine could work well in a busy café environment without a glitch, without the need for a skilled operator, and most importantly, with the absolute acceptance of the consumer.

As luck would have it, I soon after received a call from a café client of mine finding for a clarification to a qoute he had. His coffee sales had begun to plateau due to an exceptionally small shop producing at maximum capacity. He wanted to growth throughput, but did not even have the space for a semi-auto 2 group, or for another barista! It was a 12 quadrilateral metre shop processing 50 kilos of espresso in a 5 day week, and he wanted more.

I suggested that he come in and look at this new super automatic, and once I ran him straight through the basics, he had it installed immediately. Just as well, because the next morning one of his staff members called in sick. Later that day, my client called me to tell me that this machine extracted coffees better than he or his baristas could, and it was being operated by an unskilled staff member. He informed me that it took care of all the dismissal needs and the semi-automatic was used to steam the milk. It added a further few kilos to his daily sales, and most importantly, it was greeted with certain interest and not one complaint! Needless to say, he bought this machine on the spot.

This super automated espresso machine and the isolate steaming gismo I saw back in 2003 got me thinking. I reasoned that if a constructor twigged to combining these, then would it spell the end of the barista?

There is unmistakably a compelling discussion for such a trend.

In mature espresso markets, the emergence of the barista to a place of prominence in the café has been a mixed blessing. No doubt, the professionalisation of this someone is a good thing for consumers- they can expect better coffees. But it does come at a cost to the café owner.

At the private level, a barista continually thinks they are worth more than they are paid. When individuals believe they are on top of their game, this mental is purely human nature. For example, where espresso coffee knowledge and skills are improved (eg. competing successfully at barista competitions) individuals can institute the impression that such improvements should be met with higher pay. Whilst I am not passing judgement here, the mindset of the barista is often formed without a true insight of the cost buildings of the company they are working in, or the affordability of their demands. If the barista's requests for higher pay is continually rejected by the café owner (usually without clear indications as to why) he or she will at last shop around for a café which is willing to pay higher than what they are getting at the moment.

This continual cycle of upward pressure to wage costs over time reaches a point of un-affordability for café owners. Why? Because most café owners are reluctant to raise the retail price of their coffees! The sad reality is that most café owners continually watch their competitors pricing, and refuse to raise prices unless their competitors do it first. What they fail to realise is that their competitors watch their prices in the same way. Very few café owners are willing to lead the way for fear of losing a ration of their buyer base and this situation becomes a 'stand-off'.

Ridiculously in Australia, retail prices of coffees have moved up very limited in the last few years, whilst overheads to the company have doubled in most cases. For most cafes, net profits have fallen to levels below that of many passive investments (i.e. The benchmark midpoint net profit for a café in Australia is now 4%). This means that an midpoint café with 0,000 in yearly sales clears an midpoint of ,000 profit - not nearly sufficient for all that hard work and capital investment.

Admittedly, the better cafes operate above this average. But whatever wanting to raise the appropriate of their café from below, or at, 4% net profit would not be able to afford a cheap barista at ,000 a year. And for many chains carrying further costs such as royalties, franchise fees, managers etc, this is less of a possibility.

As well, even if a café owner 'bites the bullet' and is ready to pay for a barista, there is limited certify that this someone will be good sufficient to create a consistently high capability coffee every single time. Most café owners lack the skills to adequately scrutinise the effectiveness and skills of a barista because they lack the knowledge required to do so. I guess that is one reason why they hover on the midpoint net profit mark in the first place. Most café owners continually look to reduce costs to the company not to enhance them.

In the end this process affects nearly all café owners and would make them amenable to trying whatever which can cut costs whilst at the same time maintain, or exceed, existing standards. And whilst the upper end of the boutique café stick will stick it out with baristas - for the theatre, the marketing, the romance - the bulk of café owners in a very mature 100% espresso store will explore whatever and everything to reduce the inconsistency of temperament and quality, and the ever growing expense of the barista.

And manufacturers are waking up to this 'gap' in the café market. Espresso machines manufacturers are continually exploring store conditions in their drive to grow sales. They are continually on the look out for ways to beat their opposition, both in terms of range of equipment being offered, and by catering to the discrete needs of all sectors of the coffee store - from the private café to the large chains. Whilst large chains have always blindingly focused on cost savings, the downward spiral of net profits for private café owners has turned their focus that way too, development it opportune for manufacturers to deliver on equipment which can satisfy. In many ways, catering to this focus is an easier sell than arguing ways to grow sales.

In the last few years, many manufacturers have been busy developing low cost machines which can replace a skilled operator. Back in the early days, any machine labelled automated were often expensive, complicated, broke down often, and finally produced a less than capability espresso coffee. And the milk was heated and frothed to the consistency of meringue - not the most appropriate standard.

Traditionally, the early up-takers of super automated espresso machines have always been the large chains or establishments. Most have stated that the introduction of these machines were for the purpose of creating a appropriate among a great number of stores. On this point they are right. A appropriate could be guaranteed, but for most espresso drinkers, often the appropriate is less than what the store would expect. In terms of convenience, quick service, and guaranteeing one standard, they did the job admirably. But the real kicker for franchise groups is that super-autos are a cost saving gismo in the long run. They do not want staff to be trained up to be skilled baristas, and the chain can employ far fewer trainers. Standards could be set by a appropriate issue training manual, and unmistakably adhered to. And in the chase for the cheap labour market, any unskilled labourer can be turned into a coffee maker. These cost savings in the long run more than compensate for the higher up front buy cost.

And despite the emergence of the new range of smarter automatics, many chains continue to use these machines purely for consistency, regardless of the capability they produce. Often, retail chains do deals based on the best box deals suppliers can provide, rather than investigating in limited information all the newest machinery in the store place, the pros an cons of each automated machine, and finally going with the type which can deliver newest 'technology to quality' into the cup. To date, the spread of super autos into other sectors of the coffee store has been slow due to the inability of these 'older style' machines to replicate the appropriate of a skilled barista.

From what I have observed though, that inability is clearly in the past. I have seen machines which can replicate a very skilled barista. Machines which do not ask for more money, do not take a break, and are not inconsistent any day of the week, and do deliver on capability at a very high level!

With communication of ideas and sharing of knowledge being as quick as it is these days it won't be long before all manufacturers are on to copying, integrating or developing their own barista change machines. And in order to sell these, you can bet your life that one of the key marketing strategies will be to forewarn the café owner exactly who is expendable!

Most baristas I have spoken to about the inherent emergence of this trend naturally poo-poo the idea. The coarse reply was that a café will always want a barista to stamp it with an air of authenticity and quality. I am not so sure, naturally because I believe the end consumer drives the market, not the barista. Pianists who once played at theatres in the days of silent movies dismissed the idea of talking movies, claiming them to be a fad, and assumed their profession would never die. Where are they now? By the same token, where are the bus conductors who had their profession erased by automated ticketing machines? There are oodles of historical examples where technology not only supplanted a profession, but did a better job at it. Every store is continually assailed by innovation which proves to not only offer a ample cost saving but also many tangible benefits.

New age and smarter automated machines which match or exceed the skills of a barista would find legitimacy in the marketplace quite swiftly if the consumer immediately sees that they do yield a better quality, more consistent, and faster coffee. And if a café owner adds into the mix a personable (but low skilled) operator who is taught a limited about the coffee, and how to pour the milk, what then?

It has been my reliance that what the bulk of consumers want out of a café is a consistently good cup of coffee with quick assistance and a degree of personality. Particularly in the mornings, these consumers are in a rush and do not care for the artistic nature and commitment of the barista. They care about the capability in the cup, and the speed in which they get it. A good cup of espresso based coffee anywhere will always beat a great cup of coffee in the odd few places every single time! And if the bulk of consumers unmistakably did care about the barista behind the machine, then what about drive throughs? They naturally would not be viable because most customers do not even know, or can see, if there is a barista on the espresso machine or not.

Again, if machines can match or exceed the capability level and consistency of a skilled barista, I doubt the bulk of consumers would care about the barista. Often, we in the coffee commerce like to think that we know the customers wants and needs. My caress of any marketing focus groups has told me otherwise. They want good coffee over and above wanting a skilled barista. The fact that these are synonymous for the time being may be a cause for false bravado among baristas.

On a financial front, café owners incorporating smarter machines should see an revision in capability in the cup and a saving of up to 50% in wage costs! This is a compelling discussion for all café owners.

But of course, history is also littered with professions which have managed to re-invent themselves.

The more profitable end of the café spectrum may pick to continue with the skilled barista in order to hold a descriptive & tangible point of discrepancy to those businesses which come to be 'automated'. It could be that a fraction of baristas will be projected into new fields, such as the equivalent of a sommelier for coffee, or the world travelled barista as spokesperson for a more sustainable future. Or, it may just happen that these new innovations in technology will work hand in hand with the barista, allowing them to growth throughput, thereby justifying their position within the café more so.

I do not have a crystal ball into the future. I don't think whatever can claim with absolute certainty what impact the advancement of technology will have on the barista. It is like standing in a fog in the middle of the road and finding the glare of oncoming lights from what you can hear to be a car. And although it may appear certain you are about to get hit, the fog leaves you with a degree of uncertainty. It may be that the car collides with you; it may be that it veers away, or the wheels may fall off and it grinds to a halt completely. whatever the outcome, there is a statistical chance it will collide. And for me, if there is a remote chance this can happen, then I would make plans to safe myself.

Is This The End Of The Barista? (Part 1)